Long-Term Time Series of GDP in Croatia

Autori u radu prikazuju osobine i uspoređuju procjene dugoročnih promjena BDP-a i BDP-a po stanovniku Hrvatske trojice autora, od kojih jedan nudi dvije metode procjene. Kronološki je prvi bio pokušaj Družića i Tice (2002) s godišnjim podacima od 1920. do 2001. (uključujući razdoblje Drugoga svjetskog rata); sljedeći je izračun Tice (2004) s godišnjim podacima od 1910. do 1990. (bez razdoblja Drugoga svjetskog rata), a najnoviji je onaj Stipetićev (2012) od 1920. do 2005. Autori pokazuju da kod dvije od tih serija (Družić i Tica, 2002 i Stipetić, 2012) nije objašnjen postupak izračuna, stoga one nisu preporučljive za daljnje korištenje. Jedini objašnjen postupak nalazimo kod Tice (2004), koji prema dvije metode procjenjuje godišnje stope rasta te potom, pomoću projekcija „unatrag”, od vrijednosti iz 1990. godine izvodi godišnje vrijednosti. I tim se procjenama treba pažljivo koristiti zbog velike ovisnosti o dvojbenim pretpostavkama. Autori smatraju da je Miljkovićev izračun (1992), koji se odnosi na kraće razdoblje od 1985. do 1991., najpouzdaniji. Unatoč raspoloživosti četiriju serija, autori zaključuju da je pred istraživačima još uvijek nedovršen zadatak procjene pouzdane serije dugoročnog rasta BDP-a i BDP-a po stanovniku Hrvatske. Bez takva izračuna naše razumijevanje dugoročnog rasta Hrvatske ostat će nepotpuno.The authors discuss the characteristics and compare the four available long-term GDP and GDP per capita series for Croatia calculated by three authors. Chronologically, the first is Družić and Tica (2002) with yearly estimates from 1920 to 2001 (including the Second World War). The second is Tica (2004) with two series from 1910 till 1990 (without the Second World War). The third is Stipetić (2012) with yearly estimates from 1920 to 2005 (without world war estimates). The authors show that two estimates, Družić and Tica (2002) and Stipetić (2012), do not offer any explanation for their calculations, making them unreliable so they cannot be recommended for further use. The two estimates by Tica (2004) are fully explained and are based on backcasting 1990 values but should be used with caution because of questionable assumptions. The authors consider the short series in Miljković (1992) from 1985 to 1991 the most reliable. Thus, in spite of four published time series, the authors conclude that the construction of long-term GDP series for Croatia remains an unfinished task for researchers. Without such estimates our understanding of long-term growth trends and our understanding of Croatia’s economic history will remain limited

Che Challenges of Real and Subjective Poverty and the Growth of Inequality in the Economies of South Eastern Europe in Transition

From the beginning it was clear that during the transformation, all aspects of economic inequality were likely to be exacerbated and that poverty was likely to emerge. This paper discusses the size and consequences of transformation-generated changes in economic inequality and poverty, both “real” and “subjective”, for future economic growth and the legitimacy of continued transformation in the Mediterranean economies in transformation (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro and Slovenia), which have been expanded to include Romania and Bulgaria. This area is referred to as the “region”